Multi-polar trap or Multi-polar dilemma
A multi-polar trap is a situation in competitive systems where multiple actors (such as countries, companies, or individuals) are compelled to make decisions that lead to mutually worse outcomes, driven by the fear of falling behind others who choose not to cooperate or restrain themselves. This concept is akin to a race to the bottom, where all parties are incentivized to degrade resources, standards, or conditions to maintain competitive parity or advantage.
Example: If one tribe decides to deplete the forest in order to built weapons to kill the neighboring tribe, the neighboring tribe must do the same in order to protect themselves, despite having no interest in depleting the forest, or even being against the depletion of the forest.
In competitive economics, depletion of resources may not be desirable, but competition may force a company to believe it is necessary in order to stay competitive or get ahead.
Multipolar Traps emerge when self-interests conflict with collective well-being, leading to detrimental outcomes. To break free, societies need to prioritize collaboration, long-term thinking, and shared goals, working across sectors and nations. The term describes situations where multiple self-interested parties are compelled to act against their collective interest, leading to poor outcomes and destruction.
This phenomenon is often referred to and personified (or zoomorphed?) into "Moloch." Moloch is an ancient Canaanite deity associated with child sacrifice and destruction. More information on this analogy can be read in the somewhat well-known blog post by Scott Alexander titled "Meditations on Moloch."
Multi-polar traps result in a byproduct referred to as the Tragedy of the Commons where pursuit of self interest has a detrimental affect on resources that are involuntarily or necessarily common, such as air, water, land, etc...
Example: Village of several farmers sharing a common pasture -> each farmer wishes to maximize their benefits by adding more grazing animals to increase profit -> as more animals graze, the pasture is overgrazed and unable to sustain the increasing population -> collective interest in maintaining a healthy pasture is compromised due to each farmer’s pursuit of personal gain -> the multipolar trap is the powerful force that drives the farmers to exploit the shared resource, leading to its degradation and harming them all.
Contemporary Example: Artificial Intelligence – rapid development of AI poses a multipolar trap due to the competition between organizations and countries. Pursuing AI superiority drives different actors to prioritize progress over safety measures, potentially leading to unintended consequences or the misuse of AI systems. Fear of falling behind in the AI race intensifies the pressure to push boundaries without considering long-term risks.
Overcoming the multipolar trap requires collaborative efforts, international cooperation, and shared ethical guidelines to ensure responsible development, prioritize safety precautions, and address potentially existential threats associated with AI.